In clinging to the dying era of free trade, Canada has lost its edge

By Arthur Lam

June 4, 2025

Time for hard-nosed commerce, Canadian-style

U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariff assault confirmed what some foreign affairs experts have predicted for the last decade: the era of free trade agreements is over.

Even before Mr. Trump violated international agreements, the warning signs were evident in the near-collapse of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the six-year impasse of the World Trade Organization’s appellate body and Canada’s paused China and India trade negotiations. Even our much-lauded agreement with the European Union ran into its own challenges, barely making it through the Netherlands’ parliament.

Our old playbook has become obsolete. And our reliance on that playbook has hurt us deeply.

In my time advising federal ministers on international trade and meeting hundreds of Canadian exporters and industry associations, I’ve witnessed a troubling reality: Canada has lost its competitive edge.

Our once-proud industries now operate as multinational subsidiaries. Free trade agreements that grant tariff-free commerce primarily benefit foreign conglomerates with complex supply chains, while Canadian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs, with less than 500 employees, comprise 99 per cent of all companies) are left competing for scraps. Without the sophistication, relationships, or financial depth to compete effectively in Europe and Asia, these businesses default to the singular market they understand: America.

Mr. Trump’s economic coercion of Canada exposed our American market dependence and vulnerability in a world defined by raw self-interest rather than international law. Prime Minister Mark Carney and his international trade ministers, Dominic LeBlanc and Maninder Sidhu, must now shift from outdated free trade models to a more pragmatic, managed trade approach.

Without large Canadian companies as trade anchors, the federal government must play a bigger role in trade facilitation, determining what to trade and with whom, while developing nimble bilateral arrangements with partners. This is a managed trade framework, as opposed to free trade, and it should focus on strategies that unlock tangible opportunities for Canadians.

Canada must pivot toward nimble sector-specific commercial arrangements. Recent steps such as the Indo-Pacific Agriculture Office in the Philippines and critical mineral partnerships with the European Union, South Korea, and Japan are promising starts. However, the government must go further and directly connect Canadian businesses to foreign buyers. Our trade ministers must evolve from negotiators of esoteric, high-level trade agreements into savvy commerce facilitators who help close deals for Canadian exporters.

Politicians will be tempted to try to rescue the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) or pursue new free trade negotiations with China and India. Such opportunities may arise, but at this juncture, the combination of deadly geopolitics, the complex economies of these countries, and domestic issues makes this a formidable challenge. A sectoral trade arrangement that creates mutual benefits and limited risks will be more manageable for the Canadian government and businesses.

The government must focus on a handful of nation-building, export-focused industries where Canada can genuinely compete globally. Federal attention has been spread too thin for too long, creating weak, regionalized ecosystems rather than globally competitive industries. The new world demands focused industrial policies where the government mobilizes businesses and academia toward concrete export and technological goals. Energy, agrifood, and resources are obvious candidates, with advanced machinery, defence, artificial intelligence and life sciences opportunities. These industries are ripe for sector-specific trade arrangements.

As well, the federal government’s Trade Commissioner Service (TCS) needs greater independence and accountability, especially to better serve Canada’s SMEs. Currently underutilized, TCS could be a commercially driven export machine like the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency or the Japan External Trade Organization. With 1,000 personnel worldwide, a reinvented TCS with dedicated commercial relationships within priority trading partner countries could drive real economic diversification in an increasingly unpredictable global marketplace. TCS needs to be a proud entity with a clear mandate and measurable outcomes, and not a tentative organization vying for relevance with its sister agencies like EDC, Invest Canada and Global Affairs Canada’s foreign service division.

The conventional wisdom of relying on international law, comprehensive trade agreements, and unfettered American market access is crumbling before our eyes. But this disruption is also an opportunity as countries worldwide actively seek partnerships with Canada to build more resilient and mutually beneficial trading relationships.

The time has come for Canada to get its elbows up to close deals for Canadian businesses and stop fantasizing about new free trade agreements.