This past spring, 44 per cent of voters who cast a ballot in the federal election did so before election day itself—the highest such rate in any Canadian election to date—and this shifting voter behaviour is changing how parties approach campaigning, and presenting new challenges to Elections Canada.
Brett Thalmann, a former Liberal strategist who served as the party’s national Get Out the Vote director in the 2021 election, said the “steady rise in advance voting election after election,” both provincially and federally, is something parties have “definitely” taken note of and for which they've had to account.
“We adjusted in the 2021 campaign in terms of moving up the dates of when we want mail to get delivered to our supporters—reminders to vote—and ensuring that we did our outreach ahead of
advanced vote because we knew such a high percentage of voters would take advantage of the convenience of advanced voting,” said Thalmann, now a founding partner of Nexus Strategic Consultants and Next Campaign Technologies. “You have to, or you kind of miss the window.”
Longtime NDP strategist Anne McGrath, now with Catalyze4, has been working on political campaigns since the 1990s, including as national campaign director for the NDP in 2015, and as a spokesperson and senior strategist for this year’s race. More and more, she said, campaigns are focused “on getting their advanced vote out and getting people to vote early.”
Previously, “you would spend probably the last two weeks—maybe—of a campaign planning and executing your election day Get Out the Vote effort,” from lining up scrutineers, to ensuring people have the information they need to get to the polls, she said.
“But in the last few campaigns, it’s been earlier and earlier,” said McGrath.
Veteran NDP strategist Anne McGrath says GOTV efforts have been starting 'earlier and earlier.' The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade
Her former NDP colleague, Jordan Leichnitz, an ex-deputy chief of staff to then-NDP leader Thomas Mulcair and now Canada director with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, agreed.
“Campaigns are increasingly focusing their Get Out the Vote efforts on turning out strong supporters early, because it frees up resources on election day to turn out others who might be less likely to vote,” Leichnitz told The Hill Times by email. “Rather than thinking about one election day, advance votes are treated as mini-election days in their own right.”
McGrath, Leichnitz, and Thalmann all said they see a mix of reasons for Canadians’ rising use of advance voting options. On one hand, political parties are increasingly driving people to lock in their votes early, but it’s also seen as more convenient, and voters are increasingly polarized and decided well before election day. This past race was also seen as particularly consequential amid the looming threat of United States President Donald Trump’s tariff and annexation threats, contributing to an uptick in turnout overall.
“We’re seeing people make up their minds on how to vote earlier and earlier—often even before the writ is dropped for the campaign,” said Leitchnitz.
Leichnitz said as habits continue to shift, so, too, will campaign strategies.
“Campaigns will have to adapt their communications to recognize that the critical campaign period extends well before things officially kick off, and that events and messages voters get between campaigns can form lasting impressions,” she said.
As detailed in Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault’s report on the 45th general election, published on Sept. 15, roughly 69 per cent of registered voters—19.8 million people—cast a ballot this year.
That marks a notable jump from the 62.6 per cent turnout rate of the 2021 election, and is the highest turnout in a federal election since 1993 when 69.6 per cent of registered Canadians voted. And while a slim majority waited until election day—April 28—to lock in their votes, 44 per cent did so days or weeks in advance.
An estimated 7.5 million people—or 37.9 per cent of those who cast ballots—turned out at advance polls between April 18 and April 21, while another 1.2 million (6.3 per cent) voted by special ballot, a category that includes people who opted to vote by mail from within or outside of their ridings, at local Elections Canada offices, and Canadians living abroad.
By comparison, roughly 40.5 per cent of votes in the 2021 election were locked in before election day—34.2 per cent at advance polls specifically—compared to 30.2 per cent in the 2019 election, 24.3 per cent in 2015, and just 16.2 per cent in 2011.
“These figures underscore a significant evolution in voting behaviour: the assumption that most electors will vote on election day is increasingly outdated,” reads Perrault’s report, highlighting that this “evolution has implications for electoral administration.”
“Proccesses that were once peripheral have become central, requiring more resources, training and co-ordination than ever before,” continues the report.
Elections Canada set up 7,295 advance polling stations this year—compared to 6,429 in 2021—but there were nonetheless reports of voters facing long lines, and according to Perrault’s report, three ridings even “experienced ballot shortages at advance polls,” leading to delays.
In a Sept. 15 press conference with reporters, Perrault said along with more Canadians voting earlier, “the task of finding accessible and available polling locations and of finalizing the leases is increasingly difficult.” Some 60 per cent of voter information cards were delayed this year due to difficulties in finalizing leases to secure polling locations, he said.
The shorter time period to get things lined up also “increases the risk of errors,” said Perrault. As an example, more than 100 voters received special ballots with the wrong return postal code in the riding of Terrebonne, Que., which was later subject to a recount and was ultimately won by a single vote—the result of which is now being challenged in court by the Bloc Québécois.
Elections Canada, headed by Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault, expects that more than 50 per cent of Canadians will vote in advance in the next election. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade
In his report, Perrault warned that the “marked trend” of more and more Canadians voting at advance polls “has reached a point where it threatens the agency’s ability to meet the expectations of electors for this particular service, at least for general elections that are not held on a fixed date.”
“While only 7.5 per cent of Canadians voted before election day 25 years ago, Elections Canada now anticipates that over 50 per cent of electors will do so at the next general election,” reads the report.
Perrault told reporters that increasing the minimum length of a federal campaign period could be one fix to help his agency respond to shifting voter habits, and parties establishing longer campaigns when calling a snap election could be another.
Currently, election laws set out that election day must fall at least 36 days and no more than 50 days after the day the writs are issued. This year, the election took place 36 days after it was called.
While voting behaviours may be shifting, not all aspects of traditional campaigning are keeping up.
The official Leaders’ Debates Commission scheduled its English and French tee-offs for April 16 and 17—the day before advance polling began.
The first major federal party to release a platform this year was the Greens on April 17, followed by the Liberals and NDP on April 19, and the Conservatives on April 22—just six days before election day, and after the close of advance polls.
Western University professor Laura Stephenson said as a result of this timing, “the public is not getting any clear picture of what the politicians or parties have on offer, and it’s unclear at what point the information is going to come forward.”
“It’s kind of changing the nature of political decision-making,” she said.
'Voting trends need to be watched closely' by political parties, says former Liberal strategist Brett Thalmann. Photograph courtesy of LinkedIn
Thalmann said parties need to continue to adapt.
“The voting trends need to be watched closely, and we should adapt, whether it’s debates or analysis of party positions, and preparing information for voters” to ensure they have such details early enough to take into account when deciding how to vote, said Thalmann.
Stephenson said while “it’s very hard to kind of legislate the nature of a strategic campaign,” she suggested one possibility could be requiring platforms to be released in order for a party leader to be allowed to take part in the debates.
That said, amid an increasingly polarized electorate, voters aren’t seen to pay the same kind of attention to policy platforms as they once did.
Stephenson recalled conversations with friends during the spring election: “People were saying, ‘listen, I want to vote. It makes more sense for me to vote when I can at the advanced poll, far more convenient.’ … None of them seemed concerned that they would be missing out on information that might have swayed their decision if they waited until the end.”
She noted, however, that this year’s election was unique amid threats from the U.S., as a result of which “the issues in this election were pretty firm.”
Leichtnitz agreed: “Debates and platforms aren’t central to political decision-making for most voters in the way they were a generation ago, and that has a lot to do with our fragmented media environment and very online ways that younger generations get their political information.”
Previously only available to certain groups of voters—like those unable to vote on election day due to religious beliefs, or age, infirmity, or advanced pregnancy—all Canadian voters have been able to vote in advance in 1993. In 2014, the Canada Elections Act was amended to add a fourth day of advance polling, and in 2018, advance voting hours were extended.
Also in 2018, the requirement that Canadians living abroad must not have been absent from the country for more than five years in order to vote was lifted.
While expats continue to make up only a small fraction—less than one per cent—of votes cast in a federal election, there was a notable uptick in interest this year. The number of Canadians abroad who requested special ballots almost doubled from 55,000 in 2021 to 102,000 this year, and while only a fraction (once again) returned them, altogether 57,440 Canadians living abroad voted this spring, compared to 27,035 the election prior.
